Personal Insights & Thoughts: The New Cold War in the Arctic
US-Russia Rivalry Rekindled in Resource-Rich Chukchi Sea
(Based on personal research - Nadia)
Tensions are rising as countries, especially Russia, scramble in the wake of a rapidly warming Arctic to harness the lucrative oil reserves, secure fishing access and shipping routes in the Chukchi Sea. It is vital that the US demonstrate both its unwillingness to sit on the sidelines as Russia continues to militarize the region, and its commitment to environmental stewardship, by pioneering scientific research. Policy options are: (1) Expanding US naval presence in the Arctic as a counterbalance, and (2) Facilitating a joint US-Russia effort to address issues pertaining to environmental and indigenous cooperation. The best course of action would be to utilize the Arctic Council to secure non-economic US objectives peacefully, while establishing a baseline, but scalable military presence, that’s reinforceable should Russia choose to behave as presumptuously as it has historically in the region.
Background: Russia’s rapidly expanding military presence in the Chukchi Sea now has been compared by some to its attempt to establish a “Red Arctic” in the 1930s (Myers). Currently, a de facto US-Russia agreement allots the larger portion of the disputed, oil-rich territory in the Bering Sea to the US, but this agreement has yet to be approved by the Russian parliament (“Agreement”). Thus far, Moscow has respected status quo territorial arrangements, but increased nationalism at home could encourage Russian authorities to be less reasonable in the future as “ideology can make a great difference to political development” (Gourevitch). Perhaps even more concerning, decades of cooperation in the Arctic Council have all but ended with Moscow’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its continued war in eastern Ukraine (Myers). As, from the Realist point of view, international institutions are largely vehicles for state power and interests, the chances of ensuring longstanding US interests are significantly slimmer without sufficient international institutional backing (Martin).
Analysis: For Russia, the Arctic is at the nexus of national identity, enormous economic priority, and security necessity (Conley). In order to protect their possessions, states often seek to control resources or land outside their own territory, and Russia’s growing military occupation of the Arctic is true to form (Jervis). In contrast, new sources of energy in the form of hydraulic fracturing have reduced US energy dependence and incentive to allocate significant resources to economic and military development of the Arctic.
Option 1: The US expands its naval presence in the Chukchi Sea
The increased presence of unidentified submarines in Swedish and Finnish waters and aircraft incursions into Norwegian airspace are definite causes for concern and “demonstrate what Western nations have to begin to prepare for” (Macalister). Thus, a counterbalance is necessary. However, increasing its naval presence will be no simple feat; the US possesses only two icebreaking vessels and lacks deep water ports capable of increased naval activity (Macalister). In contrast, Russia currently operates 41 icebreakers and is reopening 50 Soviet-era military bases (Grove). Furthermore, increased US military presence in the region will likely kick-start a security dilemma and a race to out-fund others, as one state’s gain in security often inadvertently threatens others (Jervis).
Option 2: The Arctic Council should facilitate a joint US-Russia effort that focuses on addressing environmental and indigenous cooperation issues
Historically, the United States has placed little emphasis on economic development and security in the Arctic and tends to be more in line ideologically with the Arctic Council, whose primary focus is on the “human dimension” of Arctic cooperation (Conley). Alaska’s Inupiat community is particularly sensitive to the dangers posed by a potential oil spill and will respond adversely to increased exploitation of the area (Kizzia). This course of action, if implemented, could make future resource exploitation by the US politically unsustainable; its democratic system implies a large selectorate and gives the community’s concern significant political weight (Bueno de Mesquita).
My Recommendation: Russia is well aware that without international support, it cannot realize its full economic potential (Conley). The US has traditionally placed more emphasis on environmental issues and indigenous communities than it has on economic development and militarization in the Arctic, a position very much in alignment with the Arctic Council and domestic interests. As a result, facilitating a joint US-Russia initiative that addresses these issues while enabling Russia to prioritize its economic growth and security within a framework acceptable to the Arctic Council is a win-win. By also establishing an initial baseline level but expandable, military presence, the US signals that continued military expansion that poses a threat to the US and other nations can be responded to.
Works Cited
"Agreement between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on the Maritime Boundary, 1 June 1990." UN. UN, 18 Mar. 2002. Web. 2 Aug. 2017.
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, and Alastair Smith. The Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics. N.p.: PublicAffairs, 2011. Print.
Baev, Pavel K. "Russia’s Arctic Aspirations." EU Institute for Security Studies. EU Institute for Security Studies, June 2015. Web. 2 Aug. 2017.
Conley, Heather A., and Caroline Rohloff. "The New Ice Curtain." Center for Strategic & International Studies (2015): n. pag. Web. 2 Aug. 2017.
Gourevitch, Peter. The Second Image Reversed: The International Sources of Domestic Politics. N.p.: International Organization, 1978. Print.
Grove, Thomas. "Russia Starts Nationwide Show of Force." Reuters, 16 Mar. 2015. Web. 2 Aug. 2017.
Kizzia, Tom. "Whale Hunters of the Warming Arctic." The New Yorker. The New Yorker, 19 June 2017. Web. 02 Aug. 2017.
Macalister, Terry. "The New Cold War: Drilling for Oil and Gas in the Arctic." The Guardian. Guardian News and Media, n.d. Web. 02 Aug. 2017.
Martin, Lisa, and Beth Simmons. International Organizations and Institutions. N.p.: Handbook of International Relations, 2012. Print.
Myers, Steven Lee. "U.S. Is Playing Catch-Up With Russia in Scramble for the Arctic." The New York Times. The New York Times, 29 Aug. 2015. Web. 02 Aug. 2017.
